Goal: replace emotions with fixed routines.
Baseline: per-trade risk ≤ 1–2% of equity; scale out in tranches; always use a hard stop.
Market State A: Range (Sideways Box)
How to spot
Price oscillates between clearly defined highs/lows; no sustained trend.
Execution checklist
- Entry: test small near the lower bound; add only after reclaiming the midline. No random mid-range entries.
- Targets: +12% / +24% / +40% (tune to volatility).
- Stop: confirmed break below the range or a fixed −8%.
- Note: keep size modest when depth is thin—slippage can erase gains.
Math to do first
- Compute break-even and sell-to-principal (at T1, sell enough to recover all initial capital).
- Estimate remaining PnL after T1/T2/T3 so you don’t hesitate at target.
- One-stop calculator for break-even / tranches / sell-to-principal / DCA sims: Bitcoin Profit Calculator.
Market State B: Uptrend
How to spot
Weekly/daily higher highs or strong holds above key MAs; pullbacks get bought.
Execution checklist
- Entry: buy pullbacks to support (prior high/trendline/MA) on confirmation.
- Targets: +15% / +30% / +50%; execute sell-to-principal at T1.
- Stop: structural invalidation.
- Management: if funding (futures) persistently eats edge, reduce or avoid overnights.
Routing tip
Choose deeper books and lower fees to reduce slippage + friction. A Vietnam-focused overview helps compare fees, liquidity, and VND on-ramps: best crypto exchange.
Market State C: Event Weeks (Macro prints / Upgrades / Halvings)
How to spot
Within 72 hours of major data or protocol events; fake breakouts increase.
Execution checklist
- 48–72h pre-event: cut exposure to ~50%; avoid high-leverage overnights.
- Post-event: wait for structural confirmation (retest hold / volume breakout) before adding back.
- Targets & stop: unchanged—only adjust position size and holding time.
- Transfers: small test first; prefer low-fee networks; avoid moving size during congestion.
Fee note
If T1 is only +8–10%, fees/funding can halve your edge. Push T1 to +12–15% or improve venue efficiency.
Market State D: Sentiment Extremes (Panic/Euphoria)
How to spot
Fear & Greed at extremes; social + funding align one-sided.
Execution checklist
- Extreme greed (>75): trim only, tighten trailing stops.
- Extreme fear (<25): allow small DCA, never all-in.
- Journal: record decisions at extremes to build your personal “extreme-rules.”
Risk template
- Per-trade risk ≤1% during extreme weeks (extra conservative).
- Any urge to move the stop → replace with close the trade. Turn impulses into rules.
30-Second “Order Card” (copy to notes)
- Market state: □ Range □ Uptrend □ Event □ Extreme
- Entry style: □ Lump-sum □ DCA ( __ tranches)
- Targets: +15 / +30 / +50 (or +12 / +24 / +40)
- Stop: ______ (price or structure)
- Sell-to-principal at T1: ______
- Break-even incl. fees: ______
- Book depth / spread check: done □
Quick Tips on Fees & Venues
- Shallow targets are fee-sensitive. When T1 is small, maker/taker + funding + spread matter a lot.
- Venue choice: compare fees, depth, VND rails, products up front → best crypto exchange.
- Signup savings: if you choose Binance, a binance referral code may reduce trading costs (always read terms).
Weekly “Micro-Review” (10 minutes)
- Did you sell to principal at T1, respect all targets, and keep the hard stop?
- Is fee drag > 25% of gross gains? If yes, optimize venue/routing and target depth.
- Write one improvement for next week (e.g., “bump T1 to +15%,” “no overnights in event windows”).
Bottom Line
You don’t need to predict every move. Split the market into four recognizable states and pair each with a fixed checklist + pre-trade math. Once “do the math → place the trade → sell on target → quick review” becomes habit, volatility stops being the enemy—and becomes a system you can harness.
